Oz Politics Blog

And, with a guess of 83 seats, the overall winners are:

kiwipundit, Kit, ceremoniallydumped, carebear86, Honest Johnnie, Chris Mayer, rennie99, thesilverbodgie, seajay

Unfortunately, no-one guessed all the winners from the selection of 16 marginal seats. The best guessers got 13 of the 16 seats correct.

bigtibbs, JRose, randal_stevens, dibo, bailles, pappubahry, David Beard, Dan, Hunter, ceremoniallydumped, Patrician, sally_asu, Kramer

The Western Australian seats of Cowan and Swan tricked most tipsters.

The recount for McEwen saw the result change from Labor ahead by six votes to the Coalition ahead by 12 votes (Herald Sun). The final allocation of preferences will not happen for another couple of days, so things could still change.

The overall result now looks like 83 seats for Labor, with 52.71 per cent of the two party preferred vote.

The ABC computer has the prediction back at 84 seats. That would be the 80 seats Labor has in the bank plus Flynn (ALP ahead by 268 votes), Robertson (182 votes), Solomon (196 votes) and McEwan (7 votes).

The Coalition is ahead in Bowman (94 votes), Dickson (221 votes),Herbert (352 votes), Swan (280 votes) and La Trobe (889 votes).

Only Bowman and McEwan remain on the ABC’s doubtful seat list.

Labor’s two-party preferred vote share is now at 52.86 per cent.

The ABC computer has the prediction back at 83 seats. That would be the 80 seats Labor has in the bank plus Flynn (ALP ahead by 430 votes), Robertson (258 votes) and Solomon (89 votes).

The Coalition is ahead in Bowman (119 votes), McEwan (194 votes), Dickson (225 votes), Herbert (293 votes), Swan (352 votes) and La Trobe (889 votes).

As the count has progressed, Labor’s two-party preferred vote share has continued to decline. It is now 52.84 per cent; well below the Hawke achievement of 53.23 in 1983. At the close of counting on election night it was 53.41.

Now that the election is over, I will be taking a blog holiday for some months.

Only expect the odd random post.